May 19 2025: Changes and next steps for the GOP megabill
Good morning, all,
House Republicans aim to get their megabill through the full House of Representatives and over to the Senate this week, before members return to their districts for Memorial Day. Before that vote, though, the bill could change to garner more GOP votes. Below, I’ll run through some of the biggest changes being discussed and the expected timeline for this package moving forward.
For a high-level summary of the bill in its current form, see our May 14 update. For an overview of the reconciliation process being used to advance this bill, see The Basics of Budget Reconciliation.
Why the bill could change
The House Rules Committee will meet on Wednesday, May 21 at 1AM Eastern—that’s not a typo—to set the parameters for House debate on the megabill. At this point, we could also see Republican leadership unveil changes to the bill to appease the various GOP factions that aren’t happy with the current product. For instance, four Republicans voted “present” in last night’s Budget Committee meeting, allowing the bill to move to the Rules Committee but indicating that those four votes aren’t guaranteed on the House floor.
As a reminder: for this bill to pass the House, Republican leadership can lose no more than three GOP votes. While some of the changes below could earn votes, those same changes could cause concerns among other GOP members.
How the bill could change
Below are some of the biggest changes under discussion as of this morning, which House Republican votes those changes could earn, and which it could jeopardize.
Speeding Medicaid work reporting requirements
The change: The bill already includes new Medicaid work reporting requirements that are expected to kick at least 8.6 million Americans off their health insurance—without actually promoting employment. The current bill implements those requirements in 2029. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said this morning that this is likely changing to 2027. Punchbowl similarly reported a new implementation date of December 31, 2026.
Who will like it: Far-right Republicans.
Who won’t like it: Swing district Republicans.
Medicaid formula changes
The change: Reporting indicates far-right members continue to push for changes to Medicaid’s fundamental funding structure. While details about these talks are scarce, messing with that formula in the ways Republicans have proposed could have enormous implications: one Kaiser Family Foundation estimate found that 20 million people could lose their health insurance—a quarter of people who get their health care through Medicaid today.
Who will like it: Far-right Republicans.
Who won’t like it: Swing district Republicans.
State and local tax (SALT) deduction cap increase
The change: Right now, the bill raises the SALT deduction limit from the current $10,000 to $30,000 and restricts the ability to take that full tax dedication to people making under $400,000. Without congressional action, the cap on SALT deductions will expire completely at the end of the year. At least five GOP members want to see a higher cap and could oppose the bill without one. Note that their threats might be more credible than others’: several GOP members opposed the 2017 Trump tax package over SALT.
Who will like it: Republicans from states like New York, New Jersey, and California.
Who won’t like it: Far-right Republicans, and perhaps others whose states don’t benefit much from this tax deduction.
Quicker end to clean energy tax credits
The change: The current bill phases out certain existing clean energy tax credits over time, with several winding down starting in 2029. Republicans are reportedly considering cutting all clean energy incentives off in 2028. The bill is already expected to raise Americans’ energy bills and kill tens of thousands of clean energy jobs in its current form.
Who will like it: Far-right Republicans.
Who won’t like it: More than a dozen Republicans who already are concerned about the bill’s rollback of clean energy incentives.
What happens next
Below is a brief summary of the big moments to come for this megabill, if it were to move forward. As always, these timelines can change rapidly—so, take this with a grain of salt if you’re reading this after May 19!
