May 14 2025: Reconciliation recap: topline summary & top moments to watch next
Good afternoon, all,
Over the past few days, House Republicans and Democrats have debated some of the most consequential issues in the GOP’s megabill. Below, I’ll summarize those provisions and their expected impacts, as well as what to look out for next.
The list below is not exhaustive and just discusses provisions unveiled this week. For details on provisions Congress debated previously, see our April 30 and May 5 updates. For an overview of the reconciliation process being used to advance this bill, see The Basics of Budget Reconciliation.
What would the Republican megabill do?
In a nutshell: this bill would renew and expand tax loopholes for the wealthiest Americans, while taking health care and food assistance from millions.
This bill would take health insurance away from at least 13.7 million Americans. Here’s how:
New work reporting requirements for Medicaid enrollees. This new red tape alone would kick at least 8.6 million Americans off their health insurance—without actually promoting employment. Most Medicaid enrollees already work, and most people within the minority who do not are caring for family members, have a disability, or attend school. People who lose coverage due to work reporting requirements suffer long-term consequences: data from Arkansas shows that half struggle to pay off medical debt and nearly two-thirds delay taking medications. The bill would also bar people who do not fulfill these reporting requirements from tax credits that make other health coverage more affordable; in practice, this would put coverage out of reach entirely.
New paperwork requirements to “re-prove” Medicaid eligibility. This added red tape results in people who are still Medicaid-eligible losing health insurance due to paperwork errors or processing delays.
Killing tax credits that lower health care costs for low- and middle-income families. The bill lets tax credits that help families afford their insurance premiums expire. Some families will no longer be able to afford their coverage, resulting in an estimated 4 million Americans losing their health insurance.
New penalties for states that provide health care to undocumented immigrants. The federal government would cut Medicaid funds for states that use state funds—not federal dollars—to cover undocumented immigrants. 24 states provide such coverage to pregnant people, while 14 cover children. To avoid this new penalty, states could take this coverage away. That, in turn, might force children to defer necessary health care and worsen outcomes for babies born to pregnant people who lose insurance coverage.
This bill would put nearly 11 million people—including more than 4 million kids—at risk of losing food assistance under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Here’s how:
New work reporting requirements for people who receive food assistance—including for older Americans and parents of young children. Similar to Medicaid reporting requirements, this new red tape would have little effect on the number of people working, but would hurt working families, including children. Kids who lose even some of their SNAP benefits become more likely to skip medical care as their families try to make ends meet.
Forcing states to cut back on or end food assistance. The bill pushes SNAP benefit costs onto states for the first time since the program’s creation during the Great Depression. This is expected to force states to cut back on the assistance hungry Americans can receive, narrow eligibility for assistance, or end their food aid programs entirely.
Preventing food assistance from keeping up with rising costs. In 2021, at Congress’ direction, the Biden administration updated the grocery budget the Agriculture Department uses to determine the monthly SNAP allotment for the first time in 15 years. The change meant, on average, an extra $12-$16 per person per month for SNAP households. Republican members of Congress strongly criticized this increase, and this bill would forestall similar updates in the future.
This bill would raise families’ costs. Here’s how:
Kicking 4.5 million American kids off the child tax credit. The bill would deny the child tax credit—an essential tool for combatting child poverty—to U.S. citizen kids whose parents do not have Social Security numbers.
New out-of-pocket costs for some Medicaid enrollees. This bill would let states charge low-income Americans up to $35 per health care service, such as a doctor's appointment. Evidence shows these charges discourage people from seeking needed care—even when that care might be exempt from co-pays.
Rolling back clean energy tax credits. The bill ends or restricts several tax credits for clean energy, electric cars, and home efficiency improvements, thus raising Americans’ energy costs. For example, under this bill, homeowners who purchase solar panels would lose access to a 30 percent tax credit.
This bill would enable new attacks on nonprofits, public schools, and consumer protections. Here’s how:
Gives the federal government new tools to target nonprofit organizations. The bill allows the Treasury Department to revoke nonprofits’ tax-exempt status without evidence of wrongdoing. In the wake of this administration’s attacks on faith leaders, universities, and law firms, there is ample reason to believe that the administration would use this authority to attack nonprofits it disagrees with and render them unable to operate.
Funnels public dollars to private education. The bill creates a $5 billion private school voucher program, allowing ultra-wealthy Americans to claim tax breaks for their donations to organizations that give out private school scholarships. Evidence shows that private school vouchers divert resources away from public schools and could result in school closures or teacher layoffs. This hurts public school students and kids with disabilities, as private schools are exempt from certain laws that uphold their rights.
Blocks states from enforcing their own artificial intelligence (AI) laws. The bill would prohibit state and local governments from enforcing any AI-related laws or regulations for a decade, including those related to consumer protection, worker rights, and civil rights, without advancing any similar protections on the federal level.
What happens next?
This week: Budget Committee turns little bills into one megabill.
Right now, this megabill exists in the form of several relatively small bills that various House committees have crafted. However, the House must vote on one bill. Before that can happen, the House Budget Committee must combine the committees’ work products into a single reconciliation package. The Budget Committee markup that will facilitate this step is scheduled for Friday morning.
Next week: Rules Committee sets parameters for floor debate.
Before the full House can vote on the newly-combined package, the Rules Committee must approve a “rule” that sets the terms for a floor debate (e.g., the amount of time for debate, whether amendments are allowed, etc.). Republicans outnumber Democrats on the committee 9-4 so, in theory, the GOP’s signature legislative agenda should advance easily. However, three of House Republicans’ most conservative members are among those nine, and their wing of the GOP isn’t happy with the package as it stands now, namely due to what they deem insufficient Medicaid cuts. If those three oppose the rule, they’ll prevent the bill in its current form from even reaching a vote in the full House.
Later next week: House floor vote.
If the Rules Committee does manage to approve a rule, the bill will move to a vote in the full House of Representatives. The current margin in the House is 220-213, allowing the Speaker just a few GOP defections—assuming all House Democrats oppose the bill, as expected.
In terms of where GOP opposition might emerge, in addition to the conservatives I described above: the Speaker continues to negotiate with Republicans seeking a higher (or eliminated) cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT). Whether those members feel strongly enough to oppose their party’s major legislative priority remains to be seen—but it’s not unheard of. One of the SALT-focused group, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), opposed President Trump’s 2017 tax package over SALT.
June and July: to the Senate—and back again?
Long story short: even if the House gets this done, there’s virtually no chance the Senate simply passes this bill as-is and sends it to the President to become law.
For one thing, GOP senators are outright saying they’re going to make changes. Some senators oppose the repeal of clean energy tax credits, while others oppose Medicaid cuts, and others still don’t want to see a higher SALT cap. On top of that, some provisions aren’t expected to survive the “Byrd bath,” a procedural scrub to ensure the bill adheres to reconciliation’s strict rules. That could result in provisions like the ban on state AI law enforcement being thrown out.
Remember: the House and Senate must pass the exact same bill. Any Senate changes—no matter how small—will necessitate the bill going back to the House for another vote before the President can sign this package into law.
As for when the Senate could act—and, by extension, force the House to act again? Republicans are aiming to get this package to the President before August, when the U.S. is expected to hit its debt limit. If Republicans raise the debt ceiling as part of this megabill, they can do so without Democrats’ support. If they don’t, they could have to negotiate with Democrats to avoid a debt default.
This gives Republicans just over two months to get their megabill over the finish line. We’ll keep you in the loop as things progress through the steps above—or stall.