10.15.25 - Preparing for pressure points as the shutdown continues

The government shutdown is entering its third week, and there’s no indication it’ll be the last. Things could change, however, as October winds down. I’ll explain why below. 

Understanding pressure points 

For a government shutdown to end, the pressure on one side must become so great that it outweighs the cost of abandoning their position. For example, the longest-ever government shutdown in 2019 ended when its impacts on air travel, tax refunds, and other visible issues became too disruptive for then-President Trump to abide—and, in all likelihood, take the blame for. 

So, what could prompt either side to blink first this time around? 

There seemed to be pressure building around military pay, but the White House alleviated it by “shifting” funding to cover servicemembers’ paychecks—for now, that is. We’ll see what happens ahead of troops’ next payday on October 31. The White House has similarly said it will move money around to keep up the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), which feeds about 6.7 million low-income moms and their babies monthly.

To be clear: the President does not have the authority to shuffle federal federal funds at his will. While I don’t expect to see condemnations around paying troops or keeping kids fed, it’s worth noting that these moves are legally dubious at best—and it’ll be similarly worth watching to see if the White House uses the same tactics in the future for less popular projects.

These moves will likely also lengthen the shutdown. Pressure only works if it continues to build. Addressing these shutdown-related problems shields working families from harm—but it also serves as a pressure-release valve, since the desire to relieve that harm for working families could have been what prompted someone to blink and bring the shutdown to an end. 

This is not an argument for allowing harm to befall people: it’s an explanation for why we’re not hearing rumblings about lawmakers wavering in their positions. The things that would normally make that happen haven’t happened—yet. 

What about mass firings of federal workers?

The White House seems to think that mass firings at government agencies will pressure Democrats to vote for a GOP-backed funding bill, despite its failure to fix skyrocketing health care costs. 

There are a couple of problems with this logic.

First: those fired federal workers and the projects they oversee serve the entire country, not just Democrats. For example, the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, one of the agencies that saw mass firings last week, manages the 988 suicide prevention hotline—a service that is vital for all Americans, no matter their political affiliation.  

Second: as I covered in our last update, these developments—while serious—aren’t that different from what the Trump administration has already been doing throughout the year. 

Since January, the White House has been cutting communities off from federal funding they’re owed, jeopardizing jobs, preschools, public safety, cancer research, and much more—in effect shutting down things the federal government does for Americans, even when the government was officially “open.”

There’s no reason to think the White House would stop firing federal workers or holding up funding for communities just because the shutdown ends, unless it ends with a mechanism to prevent this chaos moving forward. 

So, are there any pressure points that could shake up this shutdown? 

Yes. There’s still the chance that visible, visceral events make the ongoing stalemate untenable for the players in this fight. And a big event has already started. 

As we’ve covered previously, Americans are starting to get notices about their health insurance premiums going way up next year. On average, premiums are expected to rise more than 75 percent. Americans living in rural areas will see an even bigger increase of 90 percent, and an estimated 4 million Americans will become uninsured altogether if Congress fails to act.

So far, Americans in just a few states have seen their 2026 premiums. Between now and November 1, the rest of the country will find out what their health care costs will be next year—and starting on November 1, Americans can start actually signing up for 2026 health care plans. This moment could up the pressure on President Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress to tackle this problem they’ve thus far ignored. 

As a reminder, Democrats in Congress proposed a government funding bill weeks ago to address the health care cost hikes looming for 22 million Americans, stop the President from stealing communities’ resources, and reopen the government. 

The question in the coming weeks will be whether Americans finding out that they’ll have to pay a lot more for their health care makes it harder for Republicans to go on not fixing a problem they have the power to fix. 

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@progressivecaucuscenter.org. Thanks!