9.30.25 - FAQs ahead of a government shutdown
The federal government will almost certainly shut down at midnight. Below is a quick rundown of how we got here and what to expect if and when the government shutters.
Why is the government (likely) shutting down at midnight?
Current government funding expires at midnight. There are two major issues standing in the way of an agreement on a new government funding measure, summarized below. For more details on these issues, see our last update.
Without congressional action ASAP, millions of Americans will soon see their health insurance premiums skyrocket. Tax credits that help Americans afford their insurance premiums run out at the end of the year and, as a result, families are already getting notices that their costs will soar. On average, premiums are expected to go up more than 75 percent. Americans living in rural areas will see an even bigger increase of 90 percent, and an estimated 4 million Americans will become uninsured altogether. Since premium notices are already hitting mailboxes, Democrats in Congress are calling for any government funding agreement to also deal with this problem now. Republicans have rejected that call.
Throughout this year, the Trump administration has ignored government funding laws, deciding unilaterally which legally-owed funds to withhold from communities. Republicans in Congress have, with few exceptions, yielded to the President rather than defend the laws they passed. As a result, the administration continues to owe communities more than $410 billion for VA hospitals, natural disaster relief, cancer screenings, road and bridge repairs, and much more.This begs the question: how do Democrats enter into a government funding agreement with Republicans knowing the President could ignore it completely and deny people crucial resources whenever he chooses?
Democratic leaders have proposed a funding bill that keeps the government open, deals with the looming health care cliff, and puts guardrails in place to ensure the Trump administration follows the law and gets communities the federal funds they’re legally owed. While Democrats can force a vote on this proposal in the Senate before the shutdown deadline, House Republicans would need to agree to bring it to a vote.
What would have to happen—and when—for the government to stay open?
Both the House and Senate would need to pass an identical government funding measure, and the President would have to sign it into law before midnight.
What are the odds of that happening?
Slim. For one thing, House Republican leadership sent their members home, making any vote in the House today virtually impossible. The Senate will vote later today on a government funding bill House Republicans passed a couple weeks ago. That measure fails to address the looming health care cost cliff or the White House’s refusal to follow government funding laws and, accordingly, is poised to fail at the time of publication. Remember: a government funding bill needs 60 votes to pass in the Senate and, therefore, must have bipartisan support, as Republicans hold just 53 Senate seats.
What happens when the government shuts down?
Federal government functions halt, with limited exceptions (more on that later). Here are some practical examples of what that looks like from the shutdown between December 22, 2018 and January 25, 2019:
The Food and Drug Administration paused routine inspections, which endangered the public by allowing unsafe food or medical facilities to operate undetected. In the shutdown’s first weeks alone, the agency canceled more than 50 “high-risk” inspections, which typically involve food considered vulnerable to contamination like seafood, cheese, and vegetables.
More than 86,000 immigration court hearings were canceled, delaying immigration proceedings for people who may have been waiting for their day in court for years and worsening an already substantial case backlog.
The National Park Service stopped trash collection and road repairs, which allowed unsanitary conditions to fester and dangerous roads to remain in use. Some parks closed entirely, as did the Smithsonian museums, the National Zoo, and the National Gallery of Art, disrupting families’ travel plans and costing the government revenue it would otherwise collect from fees and souvenir and concession sales.
What doesn’t change during a shutdown?
Certain government functions continue regardless of whether the agencies responsible for them shut down. A 1981 memo from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) referred to these activities as those related to “national security or the safety of life and property.” Activities that fall under this category include inpatient hospital care and emergency outpatient medical care, air traffic control, law enforcement, border security, disaster aid, and power grid maintenance.
However, a government shutdown could disrupt even these activities—especially if it lasts for weeks or more. For example, during the 2018-2019 shutdown, air traffic controllers were forced to work without pay and began calling in sick in large numbers in protest. The resulting shortages caused major flight delays, and on January 25, 2019, New York’s La Guardia airport was closed to incoming planes entirely.
Government activities that are not funded by annual appropriations bills also continue during a shutdown. This includes the U.S. Postal Service, which sustains its own operations through stamp sales, shipping costs, and more. This also includes permanently-funded programs, like Social Security and Medicare.
Again, however, a shutdown may cause disruptions even as services continue. For example, during the Fiscal Year 1996 shutdowns, although Social Security benefits remained funded, most Social Security Administration (SSA) staff were initially furloughed because appropriations from Congress fund their salaries. As a result, the agency did not have enough staff to respond to inquiries or process address changes and new benefit claims. While SSA called back staff to fulfill these functions, the incident illustrates that even programs not subject to appropriations can suffer during a shutdown, forcing the public to grapple with issues like delayed benefits.
What happens to federal government workers during a shutdown?
Federal employees are either furloughed—that is, prohibited from reporting to work and not paid—or must work without pay if they are considered essential to fulfilling ongoing government functions, like those required to maintain public safety. Historically, Congress has passed legislation to pay both categories of employees retroactively once the government reopens. Of course, this backpay does not alleviate hardships federal employees experience during a shutdown.
Unlike workers the federal government employs directly, government contractors forced to stop working do not typically receive backpay following government shutdowns.
The White House has threatened to make a shutdown even more painful for Americans by firing large numbers of federal workers. A shutdown doesn’t provide any new authority for the administration to carry out these indiscriminate firings—nor would they be a major departure from what the administration is doing already. In fact, the government is projected to end 2025 with 300,000 fewer federal employees than it had in January.
How long does a government shutdown last?
Shutdowns last until Congress passes and the President signs a bill to fund the government. The 2018-2019 shutdown was the longest government shutdown in U.S. history at 35 days.
Assuming a shutdown commences tonight, we’ll keep you posted throughout.
If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@progressivecaucuscenter.org. Thanks!