6.25.25 - What to watch as Senate prepares for GOP megabill votes

Reporting indicates that the Senate will kick off votes on the Republican megabill as early as Thursday or Friday. This will likely tee up Senate votes through the weekend. If the Senate-crafted bill passes, it must win House approval before it can go to the President to become law—and all of that must happen by next Friday to meet the President’s preferred deadline. 

It’s extremely ambitious, but technically possible. While Congress is scheduled to be in recess next week, Speaker Johnson told House members to keep their schedules flexible in case a vote is imminent. 

Below, we’ll outline what to expect as this megabill hits the Senate floor. For our most recent summary of the Senate bill and how it differs from the House version, check out our June 23 update—note, though, that these provisions can and will change as the Senate Parliamentarian continues to scrub the bill for rules violations. 

Senate debate

Senate debate time on a reconciliation bill is fixed at 20 hours, split evenly between the parties. Republicans could opt to not use their full 10 hours of debate to speed things along, but Democrats will likely use theirs.

Once time is up, the Senate can only add additional debate time by unanimous consent—that is, if all 100 senators agree. Otherwise, the Senate may only consider amendments and a vote on final passage. There is no limit to the number of amendments that can be offered, which typically results in an hours-long series of amendment votes known as “vote-a-rama.” More on that later.

The Byrd Rule and points of order 

The Senate’s Parliamentarian determines whether the bill’s provisions comply with Section 313 of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, better known as the “Byrd Rule.” The Byrd Rule deems a provision ineligible for reconciliation if it meets any of the following criteria: 

• It does not change expenditures or revenues, or the conditions by which they are made or collected. 

• The changes to spending or revenues are merely incidental to the relevant provision. The nonpartisan Senate Parliamentarian makes the “merely incidental” determination, arguably the Byrd Rule’s most subjective element. 

• It is outside the jurisdiction of the committee that submitted the provision. 

• The change in spending or revenues does not comply with the relevant committee’s reconciliation instructions. 

• It increases the deficit after 10 years. So, if a provision increases the deficit without an offset, it must wind down or expire to avoid violating this rule. 

• It changes Social Security.

If the Parliamentarian advises that a provision does not comply with the Byrd Rule, the provision is typically modified or removed—either preemptively before the bill reaches the floor, by floor amendment, or by point of order. 

If the Parliamentarian advises against a provision and the provision is not removed before the bill reaches the Senate floor, a senator may raise a point of order during floor debate. Think of this like an attorney “objecting” in a courtroom. It is possible for the Senate’s Presiding Officer—a member of the majority party—to ignore the Parliamentarian’s guidance, determine that the point of order is without merit, and allow the provision to stay in place. This has rarely happened, although stakeholders have suggested that the GOP should consider this tactic to achieve their goals. 

If a point of order is raised and sustained by the Senate’s Presiding Officer, the provision is stricken—unless a senator moves to waive the point of order and retain the provision. In that case, the Senate votes on whether to keep the provision in the bill, with 60 votes required to do so. 

Vote-a-rama

Like markups, vote-a-rama offers the minority a chance to force votes on their priorities. However, the amendments must adhere to specific parameters: 

• The amendments must be germane. 

• The amendments cannot violate the Byrd Rule. 

• The amendments must lower the deficit or leave it untouched. Amendments cannot raise the deficit, except amendments that strike whole provisions from the bill. These are permitted even when the eliminated provision would reduce the deficit. 

Senate passage

Once no more amendments are offered, the Senate votes on passage. Passage requires a simple majority vote (51 of 100). 

What happens next 

If, indeed, the Senate passes this megabill in the coming days, they’re betting the House will approve it in short order. House passage would clear the way for the bill to become law. 

There are House Republicans claiming they’d oppose the Senate bill as-is, but 1) there’s time for it to change enough to allow those members to claim they’re now satisfied, and 2) if a House vote is the last thing standing between this bill and the President, Republicans might be less willing to take a stand and scuttle the President’s agenda in reality than they are in theory. After all, numerous House Republicans had major qualms with the House version of the megabill but went on to support it without getting everything they wanted—and that was when the stakes were arguably lower. 

All that said: there are a lot of House Republicans with a lot of qualms. Here’s a good rundown.  

We’ll keep you posted as things progress.

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@progressivecaucuscenter.org. Thanks!