6.17.25 - New bill, same winners & losers

Good morning, all, 

Last night, Senate committees finished releasing their versions of the Republican megabill the House passed last month. Below, we’ll walk through how to think about what happens next. Because there’s been ample policy analysis from folks like Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Evergreen Action, and more, we’ll focus on process and high-level takeaways.

If you need a refresher, you can find our full summary of the House-passed bill in our May 22 update. For a rundown on the fast-track process Republicans are using to advance their megabill, check out The Basics of Budget Reconciliation.

How to think about Senate Republicans’ goals 

Senate GOP leaders have two priorities as they fine-tune their proposals and pitch the revamped megabill to their colleagues: 

• Make it sound as though the bill has changed enough to satisfy Senate Republicans who had qualms with the House bill.

• Make it sound as though the bill remains mostly the same to placate House Republicans, who will have to approve the Senate’s changes.

Is this a tricky balance to strike? Absolutely, and it won’t be made easier if/when the Senate’s parliamentarian rules that some provisions don’t mass muster under reconciliation’s rules—again, see The Basics of Budget Reconciliation for more on that issue. 

Ultimately, though, Republican leaders are probably going to fall back on the same argument for GOP naysayers, no matter their position: “are you really going to be the person who holds up the President’s agenda when we’re so close to the finish line?” If last month’s House vote is any indication, this could be an effective tactic. Its effectiveness may hinge on:

• Whether and how the Senate’s initial proposals evolve in the coming weeks.

• The extent to which the President engages personally to cajole resistant Republicans, as he did in the House.  

New bill, same winners & losers

Despite these dynamics and the rhetoric you might hear as a result, the Senate’s bill is by no means a “more moderate” version of the House’s. This bill would still: 

• Give more to the very richest Americans and take from those who have the least. 

• Pay for tax giveaways to the rich and corporations by taking health care and food assistance from families.

• Funnel billions to the already-bloated Pentagon budget. 

• Create a slush fund to tear apart immigrant families in violation of the law.

Below are highlights from some of the latest analyses of the GOP megabill:

• The ultra-rich gain while the rest of us lose. The poorest 10 percent of households would lose an estimated $1,600 a year, while the richest 10 percent would gain about $12,000 a year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Another analysis from Yale’s Budget Lab found that the House-passed bill would reduce incomes for the vast majority of U.S. households—specifically, the bottom 80 percent—when coupled with the President's ineffective approach to tariffs. 

• Giveaways to the wealthy and corporations come from taking health care and food assistance from millions. An estimated 16 million people would lose their health insurance, while 8 million would be at-risk of losing food assistance under the Republican megabill. 

What to watch next 

Last week, we covered what an ambitious timeline to get the bill through Congress by July 4 could look like. We’ll continue to keep you updated on how this path forward may change in the coming weeks. 

In addition, the Congressional Progressive Caucus Center invites you to join The DOGE Double Standard: Billions for Bombs, Pennies for the People on Wednesday, June 25 at 3PM ET! Experts will debunk DOGE’s promises of government “efficiency” as Congress continues to abet wasteful spending at the Pentagon through legislation like the GOP megabill. Register here!

If you’d like a live update for your group or coalition, reach out to catherine@progressivecaucuscenter.org. Thanks!